Sains Malaysiana 53(09)(2024): 3011-3019

http://doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2024-5309-08

Peramalan Tempoh Persaraan Pekerja di Malaysia 2001-2047

(Forecasting the Retirement Period of Employees in Malaysia 2001-2047)

SURAYA FADILAH RAMLI^1,2, NORISZURA ISMAIL^2,*, ZAIDI ISA² & HALIM SHUKRI KAMARUDDIN³

¹School of Computing, Informatics and Media, Universiti Teknologi MARA, 40450 Shah Alam, Selangor, Malaysia

²Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science & Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia

³Business School, University of Southampton Malaysia, 79100 Iskandar Puteri, Johor, Malaysia

Diserahkan: 1 Mei 2024/Diterima: 10 Julai 2024

Abstrak

Kajian ini meramal kadar penyertaan tenaga buruh di Malaysia melalui model stokastik dengan kesan kohort, iaitu suatu kaedah yang menawarkan perspektif baharu berbanding analisis kumpulan umur tradisional. Unjuran kadar ini kemudiannya diaplikasi untuk menganggar jangkaan tempoh persaraan bagi pekerja berumur 20 tahun. Secara khususnya, trend kritikal bagi kadar penyertaan pekerja lelaki dan wanita di Malaysia, berserta unjuran yang menjangkau tahun 2047, diperoleh dengan memanfaatkan model Renshaw-Haberman dan model Plat. Keputusan kajian menunjukkan penurunan dalam unjuran kadar penyertaan buruh lelaki bagi tempoh 2018 hingga 2047, manakala bagi buruh wanita pula, kadar penyertaan buruh meningkat dengan mendadak pada peringkat awal sebelum menunjukkan penurunan di akhir tempoh peramalan. Jangkaan tempoh persaraan bagi kedua-dua jantina pula menunjukkan peningkatan, dengan pesara wanita mengalami pelanjutan tempoh yang lebih besar, iaitu daripada 6 tahun pada tahun 2001 kepada 12 tahun pada tahun 2047. Kajian ini mendedahkan keperluan untuk pembaharuan pencen di Malaysia kerana sistem sedia ada mungkin gagal untuk menampung tempoh persaraan yang lebih panjang disebabkan kadar kematian yang semakin menurun dan kadar penyertaan tenaga kerja yang menunjukkan peralihan. Keputusan kajian mengenai kesan umur-khusus dan kesan kohort bagi kadar penyertaan tenaga buruh menunjukkan bahawa dasar pencen yang adaptif diperlukan supaya boleh bertindak balas terhadap populasi yang semakin menua dan kadar penyertaan buruh yang beralih.

Kata kunci: Model stokastik; panjang umur; penyertaan tenaga buruh; persaraan; ramalan; tenaga kerja

Abstract

This study forecasts the labor force participation rates in Malaysia by applying stochastic models with cohort effects, which is a method that offers a fresh perspective compared to the traditional age group analyses. The forecasted rates are then applied to estimate the expected retirement period for workers aged 20 years old. Specifically, critical trends among the Malaysian males and females rates, with the projections extending to year 2047, were obtained by leveraging the Renshaw-Haberman and Plat models. Our findings show a decline in the forecasted male labor force participation rate from year 2018 to year 2047, while for female participation, the rate increases sharply in the early period before showing a decrease at the end of the forecast period. The expected length of retirement for both genders exhibits an increase, with female retirees experiencing a substantial extension, from 6 years in year 2001 to over 12 years in year 2047. This study uncovers the need for pension reform in Malaysia, as the existing system may fall short in accommodating the lengthening retirement periods due to improved mortality rates and shifting workforce participation. The findings on age-specific and cohort effects for the labor force participation rates show the necessity for an adaptive pension policies that can respond to an aging population and shifting labor force.

Keywords: Forecasts; labor force participation; longevity; retirement; stochastic model; workforce

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*Pengarang untuk surat-menyurat; email: ni@ukm.edu.my